In the first quarter, excavator sales surged by 19.5% year-on-year, loader sales increased by 25.4%, and total exports increased by 24.3% year-on-year. This is not a short-term pulse, but a structural market trend: the equipment update cycle has arrived, and the stock equipment with a lifespan of 8-10 years is concentrated and “retired”; US $27.778 billion) ultra long term special treasury bond hit equipment renewal, US $61.1111 billion) special debt infrastructure; The overseas market has been fully opened up, and Sany Heavy Industry’s overseas revenue has reached 64%.

The stronger the whole machine sells, the more terrifying the spare parts market becomes.

Industry law: Throughout the entire lifecycle of an excavator, the output value of aftermarket parts and the price of new machines almost reach a 1:1 ratio. Sell an excavator for 42000 USD, and in the next ten years, just spare parts can be sold for another 42000 USD. In 2026, the industry’s revenue will be approximately 115 billion US dollars, and the size of the spare parts market is approaching that of the complete machine market. The whole machine is a ‘one-time business’, while spare parts are a’ lifelong business’.

Among all spare parts, the slewing bearing is being severely underestimated.

It is the core joint of all construction machinery that requires “rotation”, such as excavators, cranes, tower cranes, etc. The global market size is expected to reach $5.8 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.8%. The three major changes on the demand side are accelerating: the lifespan requirement is increasing from 3-5 years to 8-10 years, non-standard products account for over 40%, and precision requirements are approaching robot level. Every new machine and equipment update is driving the demand for slewing bearings, with higher unit prices and more frequent replacements.

Why is it said that demand is bound to increase significantly?

One is the synchronous explosion of the new aircraft’s first installation. Double digit growth in the first quarter, expected to exceed 10% for the whole year, with every new machine equipped with a factory swivel bearing as standard.

The second is the wave of stock replacement. The batch of equipment from 2010 to 2012 has reached the end of its service life, and the slewing bearings need to be replaced normally within 5-8 years. From 2026 to 2028, there will be an unprecedented wave of centralized replacement.

Thirdly, electrification has actually increased demand. The penetration rate of electric loaders has exceeded 50%. Under high-frequency operation, the load on the slewing bearings is greater and the wear is faster. They may need to be replaced 2-3 times throughout their entire lifecycle.

The popularity of the whole machine market is just the appetizer, the real feast lies in the aftermarket. Behind the 115 billion US dollars complete machine is a spare parts market of the same size. And the slewing bearing is standing at position C.

The demand is not ‘likely to rise’, it is already rising and just starting.

—Xuzhou wanda slewing bearing co.,ltd